Negotiators for the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany have reached an understanding with Iran on principles of a deal to limit Iran's nuclear program in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions, Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told reporters. The agreement came after a week of talks in Lausanne, Switzerland, and the extension of a Tuesday deadline.
Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress have pledged to push for a vote on two bills that would increase pressure on Iran. One bill, sponsored by Sens. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., and Bob Corker, R-Tenn., would give a skeptical Congress authority to approve any deal. The other would increase sanctions on Iran after June 30 if there is no comprehensive agreement at that time. President Obama has said he would veto the bills because they would derail the talks.
The wrangling will begin in earnest April 13, when lawmakers return from recess and decide whether the results of the past week's talks were satisfactory, and how to proceed.
Gary Samore, a former arms control coordinator for Obama, said he expects both bills to pass but not survive a presidential veto. The emergence of Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., as the next Senate Democratic leader could complicate matters and give administration skeptics more clout, said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who has testified before Congress on Iran sanctions.
Schumer, who's expressed skepticism of the emerging deal, is being lobbied heavily by both his pro-Israel constituents and the White House, Dubowitz said. "He'll be the bellwether for which way wavering Democrats go on this," he said.
ISRAEL
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a critic of any deal that leaves Iran's nuclear program intact, is likely to continue lobbying Congress and U.S. allies at the talks and across the Middle East to harden their negotiating stance.
"Now is the time for the international community to insist on a better deal," Netanyahu said Wednesday. "The concessions offered to Iran in Lausanne would ensure a bad deal that would endanger Israel, the Middle East and the peace of the world."
A better deal would link the lifting of the restrictions on Iran's nuclear program to changes in the nation's behavior, including an end to aggression in the region, as well as its support of terrorists around the world and its threats to annihilate Israel, he said.
Israel could also complicate the talks by taking action against Iranian nuclear scientists and facilities, which it's suspected of attacking in the past. That would make it politically harder for the Iranians to compromise with Western demands, said George Perkovich, an expert on nuclear proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
FINALIZING THE DETAILS
The difficult talks this week in Switzerland left many details to be ironed out. There's still no agreement on the pace of sanctions relief, whether Iran will explain evidence of a past nuclear weapons program — which it denies — and how its adherence to a deal will be monitored.
Since some details that were agreed to in principle in past talks were rejected this week — such as a plan to ship Iran's uranium stockpiles to Russia — everything is still "up in the air," Dubowitz said.
JUNE 30 DEADLINE?
The talks have proceeded under a six-month agreement signed in November 2013 that has been extended several times already and is now due to expire June 30. Just as Tuesday's self-imposed deadline passed, so could the June 30 one.
From the U.S. standpoint, keeping the 2013 interim agreement in place is an advantage, because it stops Iran from advancing its nuclear program and building its stockpiles of nuclear fuel, while depriving Iran of significant economic relief, Samore said.
"There are many problems that could easily make it difficult to get an agreement by June 30," Samore said. "At that point I would expect another extension."
Dubowitz agrees.
"There is no such thing as a deadline in these negotiations," he said. "The only deadline I think the president is concerned about is January 2017, when his second term as president expires."
No comments:
Post a Comment